India has a large circle behind China
Time: 2005/03/11 Source:
British gap change was dizzying. out of the new airport, new highways put you into the city. street from time to time some new high-rise buildings, previously familiar with the buildings seem to disappear in the concrete jungle. perhaps some parts of China experienced a history of the peak of the largest buildings.
and return to Delhi or Mumbai, but everything remains the same, is a bit frustrating. The only change is the crowded airport, the immigration hall to improve the queuing system. Even if the road to the city also a serious traffic jam at night, truck printed with In Delhi, there was even a brand-new subway. However, when rapid changes occur when the neighboring country, India is still almost from the appearance of the old way.
to measure this difference is difficult. Indians said that the Chinese statistics are those who want to impress their supervisors made up out of local officials, these statistics are not reliable. However, broadly speaking, the trend shown in these statistics and the problems they described in China than India mmmm mmmm is reasonable, but also of seeing the facts. oppose the use of statistics as a basis for denying the Indians just a practice in China than India.
many Indians are impatient, that foreigners can only see the airport and the beggars, etc. backward side, but do not see many of the achievements of India mmm, including India's recent rapid development of the economy. even some foreigners unbearable, those foreigners do not know why such a low efficiency and poor through the phenomenon of view made in India achievements, do not know how long the host of this low efficiency and poor in the context of their development. the changes in China beat India to provide them with a stick.
China's GDP growth in a decade, but faster
In China there are beggars, data gaps are also recent phenomenon. measured by per capita purchasing power, China's gross domestic product (GDP) to the 20th century until the early 90s over India. Since then, the two economies are With the rapid growth. India's GDP 80 years in the 20th century the average annual increase of 5.6%, from 1991 to 2003 average annual growth of 5.8%. China's growth is comparable, but the starting point is much higher, in the 20th century 80 average annual growth of 9.3%, from 1991 to 2003 average annual growth of 9.7%.
much higher because of India's population growth rate, GDP per capita gap has become wider. Between 1990 and 2003, China's per capita GDP average annual growth of 8.5%, while India only 4%. Therefore, China's per capita national income in 2003 dollars at current exchange rates mmm mmmm converted 1100 dollars, while India is only $ 530. In view of the two countries long ago, roughly the same, This gap is surprising. to consider the factors adjusted for purchasing power, China's richer than India exceeded 70%.
from the Dixon believes that two centuries ago, a little wealth to India, China, but since then most of the time than the Indian poor. U.S. dollar at 1990 constant prices, India's per capita income from 1820 to grow to $ 533 673 in 1913 dollars, while China fell to $ 552 but never $ 600. By 1950, India's per capita income is $ 619, while China is only $ 439, although in absolute numbers, China's share of global GDP India still ranks before. Since then, every decade, China's per capita GDP growth rates than India.
a result of this development is that in the past century, India's population and GDP in the world of the total population and the percentage of total GDP remained unchanged. And China's population in the world, the proportion of the total population from 1 / 4 to 1 / 5. In the 20th century, China has experienced several severe natural disasters, in 1958-1961 and lived through the history of the most serious man-made famine. Since 1980, strict birth control policies to curb the population growth rate. At the same time, China is the world's total GDP as a percentage of mmm After adjusting for factors to consider purchasing power from 1913 mmmm has been 8.9% to 11% in 2000, last year they increased to 13%.
differ greatly from international trade, international trade, measured by
between the two countries gap is even greater. In 1990, China's share of world exports was 1.9% in the share of world imports was 1.6%. By 2003, China's share of world exports was 5.8%, in the world the share of imports was 5.3%. Last year, two-way trade grew 36%, China surpassed Japan to become the third largest trading nation after the United States and Germany. In the 20th century, 90 years, China's trade growth with the GDP ratio of 70 % or more. No country in the world can get close to that figure. And India's trade volume with the ratio of GDP grew by only 23%.
trade is also growing rapidly in India last year, an increase of 16%. Even so, India last year two-way trade totaled only about 150 billion U.S. dollars in the global share of total trade accounted for less than 1% of middle-aged. for three years, some of China's trade growth of more than India's total foreign trade. This means that the two countries in the weight of the global trading system a large gap, which changed the view of each other. Indian exporters worried about Chinese competition two years ago may be their doom, but now they fear could undermine China's realization of a hard landing is developing a large market.
China's foreign exchange reserves are nearly five times that of India in 2004, growing 207 billion U.S. dollars, to the end of the year reached 610 billion U.S. dollars. as the engine of global economic growth, China has become rich and Economic Forum, an important partner. According to its provide their own figures, China's growth in global merchandise trade last year accounted for 12%.
number of poor people in India than China
the Chinese government and Chinese people worried about the wealth gap is emerging, however, rapid economic growth has made life proportion of the population in poverty declined significantly. According to the World Bank, less than 1 dollar a day by the number of people (measured by purchasing power parity) in the period 1981 to 2001 declined by about 400 million people. The World Bank Representative in China David. dollard, said: reduce the 6900 million people, but there are still 2.6 billion people still live in poverty. The World Bank estimates that 35% of Indians live less than 1 dollar a day, while only 17% of Chinese people rely on less than 1 dollar a day . According to FAO statistics, the number of undernourished in China during the period in 1990m1992 194 million people, ten years has been reduced to 142 million people. In India, the corresponding figure is 221 million and 216 million people, indicating that The number of malnourished malnutrition still the world number 1 / 4. India about 47% of children under five are underweight, while only 10% in China. India's infant mortality rate is 65p, while China is only 30p. Indians born the life expectancy was 63 years old, and the Chinese people are 71 years of age. India's adult literacy rate is 57%, while China is 91%.
design in the United Nations Development Programme Human Development Index, China's score of 0.745 (out of 1), in the 177 countries ranked 94th, while India scored 0.595, ranked 127. However, it is interesting that, with these basic living standards, the starting point for China than India high more.
, of course, if people are a lot of confusion from the data to find the most compelling statistics to illustrate the gap between India and China, then, the statistics are probably the female illiteracy rate . According to figures released by the World Bank, China 87% of the adult female literacy, while only 45% in India. Many things are coming along with the education of girls: the family and the health of higher education degree and a longer life ; more productive workers; and the promotion of industrialization and urbanization
Li: the real face of India be India, China catching up ---
recent years, a man named Davos, Switzerland town, beginning of each year the world will gather economic, financial, industrial and political elite, the World Economic Forum meeting. Since 2000, China has always been the shining star of this forum, the a cohesive topic. However, in 2004, the World Economic Forum in Davos, India replaced China as a clear theme, the Indian economy could overtake China's so-called ; the topic, it seems full of the forum. Chinese people began to embarrassment, and then began to alert. So, just chewing the power mm India. Can India overtake China on Sino-Indian economic development or the subject vividly compared online.
So, India is a kind of country? it can catch up with China? The Indian's significance? This is During my visit to India has been thinking and concerns.
two of India: the rich in heaven, the poor in the world
to India before, a friend told me: India is not sorry, been more regrettable place. to India after the parties understand that this statement from the ideal and the reality of India is its rich and poor, especially the strong cf.
any place in India, you can see the poor. the coach stopped, and immediately there surrounded by begging children up, you can kind-hearted big time, but the results do not necessarily go off, unable to stop, there will be more children look forward to hand out to you. and domestic professional begging different, they really want to discuss eat, food, water, whatever, of course, money is more popular. In the capital New Delhi, the central street, no place has beggars; both sides of the street near the embassy district, there are numerous barricaded with a little rain cloth worn tent, the women cooking in the street, older children are begging in the street, younger children were sitting in the dust on the naked hh. the city all the rivers are black, dirty, river both sides of the head of the slums is boundless, trash everywhere, dirty water cross-flow, people turn a blind eye.
Mumbai Indians in the eyes in the gathering of wealth, a paradise for nature is rich. as a legacy of its colonial, there are Many Gothic buildings, of which Mumbai railway station and the High Court is still very impressive. Here, you can see a lot of rich Indians, they are educated, dressed, open colored imported cars, and Indian-Sofia . meal Miller established taxi and tricycle cards mixed together, become a unique landscape. in Mumbai five-star Taj. Mahal front of the hotel, and out of rich people, poor women were holding babies just born with a period of vision of hope in the begging. although I come from the same China, there is a huge gap between rich and poor, even though I had on the large gap between rich and poor in India have heard about, but still struck by the immediate reality.
carefully observed in India poor, there are two characteristics of the Chinese people by surprise. First, their natural, honest and optimistic; Second, although they are poor, they had their own living space is not interrupted.
start from the 6th century BC, Hindu gradually formed and developed, although established in 322 BC at the Ashoka Maurya, especially during the administration has been regarded as the state religion of Buddhism, and many Arabs in the 7th century after the invasion, especially in the early 13th century Sultan of Delhi Empire After Islam was regarded as a state religion, but Hinduism is still after many reforms so far the most religious believers, Hindus account for nearly 50% of the population, other Buddhism, Jainism, Zoroastrianism, Islam and Sikhism, etc. ; other than English, about 1,500 languages in India, where 14 official languages. Hindus believe in nature worship, animism, emphasis on Hindu society in the historical process of emergence of class oppression, racial oppression, a combination of caste system (varna system), the formation of a Brahmin (responsible for religious worship), Kshatriya (responsible for state administration), Vaishya (in industry, agriculture , business, etc.) and Sudras (in the so-called unclean occupations) the four castes, in addition to the so-called untouchables Chandra. then in the 4th century AD, the Gupta dynasty, and formed the so-called door by occupation distill, make the caste system more fixed and refined. It is said that today there are thousands of sub-castes in India.
affected by religion, Indians are two significant features: on the one hand, the belief in animism, they then down and out and hunger will not kill all the animals and their peaceful coexistence. So, as in developed countries, India is not afraid of the human bird, all the wild animals will not be arrested to eat. Although India river pollution is serious, but otherwise the harmony between living beings in today's China is difficult to see. On the other hand, due to caste system is a long time religion, to develop the Indian tolerance, optimism and gentle nature, character . In view of low caste poor, the rich have become the rich, have become the poor themselves, is their practice in the past life (; operation and the development of the trading division of labor and interdependence, but also from the perspective of social stability, the poor do not envy the rich, and very few Shafujipin awareness and perceptions. In fact, the Indian history as heroic as the large-scale farmers in China almost never appeared in the uprising, the history of regime change almost by the alien invasion from the northwest due. Compared with China, harmony and cooperation between caste and not class struggle, the mainstream of the historical development of India or the society. development model and design of the structure of social and economic relations not only to finally get the national income and employment, significant growth, and to make the possession of income and wealth more evenly. by ignoring the importance of economic growth in India in the 20th century, 50 to 70 s economic growth has been slow from 3% to 3.5% average annual growth rate was teased as a commitment to abolish the caste system and the persecution of women, but forced the opposition and obstruction high caste, the relevant policy measures flow in a legal form, unable to obtain a de facto change. But on the other hand, India's democracy makes government poor has taken a very liberal policy, although local governments have repeatedly determined to clean up the slums, rectifying city, but in fact it difficult to implement. in India do not like us rare occurrence of slum conditions, and their poor little lives disturbed. In short, the Indian government so that the rich live in heaven, and let the poor live in the world.
the past 10 years, India's rapid economic development, including in particular the development of the software industry that attracted worldwide attention. from Rajiv. Gandhi period began, the Indian IT industry will focus on the development, the information industry, identified as poles of economic growth in India In 1984 only 80 computer manufacturers in 1985 increased to 150 home, the rise of the software industry after 1986, exports increased rapidly. as a British colonial heritage, the Indian population of the English higher education quality and high technology development ability, the unique In 1998 the great development of Vajpayee Government, in 10 years to make India a India's software exports have accounted for second in the world, exported to more than 100 countries and regions in the world top 500 enterprises in more than 200 software development outsourcing to India operations, the U.S. national telecommunications call centers have also been transferred to the India. Currently, software exports have accounted for 10% of Indian exports, estimated that by 2008 the Indian software industry output will reach 850 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 33% of total exports. However, the Indian IT industry with its social and economic development as obvious aristocratic features. In other words, the Indian IT industry is the development of their socio-economic polarization of the inevitable results. In the long historical development process, there has been two Indian civilians in India and aristocratic mm (poor) of India. India's politics is aristocratic, Indian society is the coexistence of aristocratic society and civil society, India's economy is also an obvious aristocratic features. Since the late 19th century, the national industry started in India since the has been to keep pace with the British colonial economy. to before independence in 1947, the assets of the Indian national capital controls have been with the British colonial authorities to control the assets fairly. this part of the aristocracy is the half-century capital of India is also the leading force of economic development. As aristocratic abnormal development of the national capital, labor-intensive industrial development in India has been lagging behind, especially because of its low caste population and extent of access to education is very low, long-term unemployment stubborn deposits. From this perspective, the Indian IT industry also to circumvent the accumulation of ordinary labor shortage problems of human resources, with its aristocratic education, and the resulting research and development of the aristocratic features to direct the development of the global information industry 39-year-old population has more than 430 million, if not increased employment opportunities, the cheap labor will become the most destabilizing factor in society. In this regard, the average annual absorption of 200 million people in employment is only about IT industry is not play a role. IT industry, thriving on the future social and economic development in India how much positive impact, I am afraid not optimistic.
It is in this sense, gives the impression of India: India is not a poor country, India is a poor country a lot.
up India's economy could overtake China?
experienced a 50 to 70 years 1991, economic reform, India's economic growth rate began to rapidly increase .1992 to 2002 an average of 5.5% in 2004 7.5% 2005 8.1% 2006 projected 7.5% to 8%. Although the past 10 years, China's economic growth rate of 9%, but the growth rate of Indian economy is clearly great potential to catch up to China. It is at home and abroad in recent years, India's economy could overtake China this issue, first of all should be clear gap between the overall economic scale. First, China's GDP, more than double of India (1978, China's per capita GDP of India 2 / 3, and now twice that of India); second, larger than China's foreign trade in India, is 6 times; Third, China's foreign direct investment (FDI) of the scale is 10 times; Fourth, China's cumulative overseas investment 2 times in India; Fifth, China's foreign exchange reserves is far more than India; sixth, economic resources (GDP) share of the world in 2000, China accounted for 11.16%, India 5.46%; total long-term economic growth trends China's share of world total in 2010 to 17.66%, India 6.2%, equivalent to 1990 levels in China.
Secondly, from the major social development indicators, the gap between India and China are also very clear . First, the average years of education in Chinese as 7.11, 5.06 years for the Indians (1999). Second, the national literacy rate above 90% in China, India, around 60% In 2003, the illiteracy rate among adults in China are not to 5%, India up to 32%. But India is a country pursuing elitist, there is a small part of a very high level of education. According to World Development Report 2005, senior engineer with China, India is twice the rate. Third, average life expectancy was 71.8 years in China, India, 60.8 years (2001). Fourth, the infant mortality rate is lower than China, India, 1 / 2.
Obviously, at this stage of the socio-economic development indicators, India and China still a considerable gap. specific to this stage of economic development of China and India point of view, there are two notable features:
China's macroeconomic indicators are basically better than India, but India's micro-economic indicators enterprise performance is better than most, especially China.
2003 to 2004, according to the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report, China's macroeconomic environment index ranked 25, India 52, China is far ahead of India. but in the micro-economic indicators for India ahead of China .2004 competitiveness index ranks India 30, China 47; company operations and strategic position of India as 30, China 39; the domestic business environment, ranking the quality of India 32, China 47. In fact, the performance of Indian companies in recent years, significantly better than China does.
economic growth is not simply the meaning of GDP growth, but mainly at the micro level of wealth creation. China's economy is indeed in the creation of wealth Johnson in India. According to World Bank statistics, China's per capita income is twice that of India, but the degree of wealth by the overall measure, China is only 37.6% richer than India. China in education, legal system and the invisible economy assets, especially poverty. China's intangible assets is $ 4,208 per capita, while India is $ 3,738. the gap is much smaller than the gap between the two countries in terms of GDP.
still occupied with the core of China's state-owned economy and the natural monopoly industries industries different conditions, India has successfully bred a number of best European and American companies can compete with companies such as Iforsys, Wipro, Ranbaxy and DrReddysLabs and so on. at the present stage of India's rapid economic development is primarily driven by private enterprises.
Another noteworthy phenomenon is that India's financial system is more developed than China, more efficient. As mentioned above, India is China's gross national savings 1 / 2 and the total FDI in China 1 / 10 achieved In recent years, rapid economic growth. This shows that the efficient use of funds in India was higher than in China. India's domestic economic growth is mainly driven enterprises are mainly in the capital market financing. At present, India's banking system has 27 government banks, 25 private banks, 46 foreign banks, there are 47,000 non-bank financial institutions are essentially private. India for entrepreneurs to provide means and opportunities of financing far more than China. More importantly, because of its democracy regime and the resulting information and transparency of financial markets higher level of securitization of the Indian economy is much higher than China. India has 24 stock exchanges and bond markets, trading rules and norms, operational transparency. stock market listing the company's market capitalization is 80% of its GDP, while China's stock market value of the flow of less than 10% of GDP. India's stock of assets and property, securities degree is 8 times. visible, it allocation of resources, resource mobilization and ability to utilize existing resources much stronger than in China. Thus, the introduction of more foreign investment in China for foreign direct investment is different from the introduction of foreign capital in India, mostly highly liquid financial capital inflows of foreign capital Indian stock market introduction of its total foreign investment more than 60%. Of course, India also charges the international capital flows brought about by the cost of risk. May this year, a large number of foreign investment has led to the withdrawal of the Indian stock market crash.
In addition, the Indian economy a good reason why the micro level in China, also in its goal of market reform and economic liberalization have been largely achieved, and China's market economy, freedom is still not high, still going to fight for more countries to recognize the .
hardware to China's economic growth was stronger in India, the software foundation of India's economic development was better than the Chinese.
date, not yet a highway in India In 2003, India had plans to build the first high-speed road, but have not yet started. from New Delhi to Agra where the famous Taj Mahal, only about 130 kilometers away, but often need to take the car 3 to 4 hours. Delhi airport in the 60s of last century, when in the pursuit of becoming the third India, world leaders, this scale is also a first-class airport in the world. But 40 years later, it has been worn out. India, although the software known as the world powers, but in the star hotels and the Internet mm is not easy to speed fast, very expensive.
2003 infrastructure investment in India amounted to only China's 1 / 3 of GDP, 3.5%, compared to 10.6% in China. India to catch up with China's current infrastructure level, still need 800 billion to 1 trillion U.S. dollars of investment, but not the current annual investment of 100 million. Even India's rapidly increasing investment in infrastructure, to catch up with the level of infrastructure in China today, need at least 20 years.
India's software strengths in addition to the above financial and capital market development and market liberalization of the economy than higher levels, their English level, liberalization of education and professional civil service system, etc. also significantly stronger than in China. especially the several hundred years of British colonial rule in India created a high level of India's large number of professional managers, the business management experience and strategic vision are best in the world.
However, India polarization of social and economic development makes it industry, tertiary industry, including the proportion of GDP, up to 50% to 60%, while China is just the opposite, including manufacturing, including GDP, the secondary industry accounted for 50% to 60%. with India, this point.
In addition, many people worry about the Indian domestic IT industry is due to become that is the same, namely, the lack of capacity for independent innovation and independent brands, multinational companies are outsourcing the production chain in developed countries, the most bottom. The difference is that, although the status of two similar, but the Chinese India's position will be stronger than the so-called two parallel lines, in addition to the population is similar to that of many other developing countries, the two countries in the civilized system, social structure, political system and economic system and have an obvious difference, it is difficult to set a valid comparison between coordinate system.
only if the comparison is limited in India called may be much greater than the significance of the coordinate system that can set the comparison of objects (such as China and Russia) between the This mainly involves the following three aspects: first, the core driving force of economic growth what? is a software or hardware conditions condition? This has been in development economics, institutional economics continue to debate. While some economists view , system, system software such condition is a prerequisite for economic growth, or the basis of power, but the post-war economic development of developing countries in practice, even if some countries have a more effective institutional arrangements, and even the Western political system to achieve the way a democratic system, but poor infrastructure conditions and other hardware does not have a major obstacle for economic growth; and those systems, the system is not perfect, even the authoritarian country, once with a well-developed infrastructure, its economy growth for a long period of time is very fast. In fact, recent World Bank study report is also the backwardness of infrastructure as impediments to economic growth in developing countries, the most important factor.
Second, what kind of government After more conducive to the development of the country's economic growth? both conditions have a software or hardware conditions, more important is effective in these conditions will be conducive to economic growth-oriented direction of the government's efficiency. Myrdal was in its drama awareness and understanding of China, has been allowed to reflect surprise three things: First, as early as 50 years India has proposed to control the excessive growth of population size, but because of its complex religious, ethnic and political issues, time to still not been resolved today, but China in the late 70s to promote and develop family planning policy, rapid population growth under control; the second is the early 60's when the China and India because of territorial issues in the military conflict, the Chinese army crossed the rapid and blitz The so-called China's reform and opening in 1979,
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